Tottenham Hotspur suffered a crushing 2-1 loss to London rivals Fulham, leaving Spurs just four points from safety.
The North Londoners find themselves dangerously close to the relegation zone again, and there are real fears that the Europa League champions could be sucked into the dreaded bottom three.
Thankfully, Opta’s Premier League prediction model projects safety.
Per the model, Spurs have a 30.48% chance of finishing 16th, just above Nottingham Forest in 17th and the relegated pack.
There is only a 4.88% chance that Spurs finish in 18th, which will be good news for weary fans desperate to avoid the embarrassment of relegation.
It is hard to pinpoint exactly where the problem at Tottenham stems from, but the club is currently in disarray from top to bottom.
The problems started from last season, but the European trophy papered over the very obvious cracks.
Tottenham had a bloated injury list last season, and that has continued this term, unaddressed.
As usual, Tottenham bungled an excellent chance to stack their squad with quality and build on the Europa League success.
Spurs failed to replace Son Heung-min properly and didn’t sign a world-class striker to provide competition for the struggling Dominic Solanke.
The team was crying out for a holding midfielder who could break up play and progress the ball, but they signed Joao Palhinha, who is excellent at the first but dreadful at the second.
They also needed a central midfielder to move through the lines, connecting midfield to attack, but instead signed a different profile in Conor Gallagher.
Thomas Frank came in and was supposed to be an upgrade on Ange Postecoglou, but the Dane was clearly out of his depth.
His penchant for playing reactive football should have discouraged Spurs from hiring him in the first place. In the end, he got the boot after an underwhelming spell.
Igor Tudor was hired to steady the ship. However, he has lost successive games, and there is nothing to suggest he can turn the tide.
Meanwhile, Tottenham have started losing commercial partners as the threat of relegation looms.
Uncertainty remains about the sporting leadership following the departure of Daniel Levy and Fabio Paratici.
What makes the situation even more precarious is the run-in. Spurs’ final 10 games are not kind.
A visit from Crystal Palace offers little comfort given their physicality and direct threat, while Liverpool and Aston Villa represent brutal examinations of a fragile defence.
Everton is rarely straightforward, especially in a relegation scrap, and Chelsea, despite their inconsistencies, have the quality to punish a side low on confidence.
The fixtures against Nottingham Forest and Wolverhampton are season-defining six-pointers. Fail there, and panic will set in.
Leeds’ intensity could overwhelm a Spurs side short on cohesion. Brighton & Hove Albion’s bravery in possession poses tactical problems for a team that struggles to press as a unit.
On paper, there are three winnable matches. In reality, none look comfortable.
Still, survival often comes down to comparison rather than competence.
Forest’s soft underbelly and chronic defensive lapses make them unreliable down the stretch, while West Ham’s spiral has been even more alarming.
Spurs may be flawed, disjointed and directionless, but they still possess match-winners capable of stealing moments, something their direct rivals lack with the same regularity.
Tottenham will likely just about make it over the line. Not convincingly, not impressively, but just enough.
Expect them to finish 16th or 17th, surviving less because of their own resurgence and more because Forest and West Ham continue to self-destruct.
It will be messy, tense and far from reassuring, but it should be enough to preserve their Premier League status.